Wednesday, October 29, 2008

An Inside Look at the Polls

I had written some time ago that if we saw a repeat of 2006 when 11 million Republican voters stayed home, John McCain would suffer a massive defeat. If 125 million+ voted this year, McCain stood a very good chance of winning the presidency. Now the number seems to 130 million+ and my thinking hasn't changed. While I don't believe in polls as a snapshot, I do believe that "the trend is your friend" and things seem to be trending our way.

The McCain-Palin campaign released a memo from Bill McInturff, Lead Pollster, McCain-Palin 2008; Partner, Public Opinion Strategies and Marc Halperin over at The Page posted a copy of it. You can read the memo over at ThePage.Time.com. Below is a key excerpt but I encourage you to read it for yourself especially as we head into the last few days of the campaign.

As other public polls begin to show Senator Obama dropping below 50% and the margin over McCain beginning to approach margin of error with a week left, all signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday.

1. We are witnessing a significant shift across the battleground states.

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